Nigeria

Nigeria: sluggish, near-stagnant growth, 1980–2025

Nigeria's oil-dependent economy has grown mainly in line with crude prices, with a young, fast-growing population driving the underlying long-run trend and periodic naira devaluations along the way. Between 1980 and 2025, Nigeria's GDP per capita grew from $870 to $1,224 (current US$), a compound annual growth rate of 0.8% — sluggish, near-stagnant growth. Annual GDP growth averaged 3.0% with a year-to-year standard deviation of 5.2 points, reflecting considerable volatility and periodic crises. Structurally, agriculture's share of the economy moved from 12.2% to 23.0% of GDP (a notable increase), while services rose from 47.5% to 58.2% of GDP, underscoring a shift toward a services-driven economy. On human development, life expectancy rose from 46.0 to 54.6 years, while tertiary school enrollment moved from 1.9% to 9.7%, while the urban population share grew from 27.4% to 63.8%.

What this growth cost: Growth was not without cost: per-capita CO2 emissions fell from 1.21 to 0.57 tonnes CO2e per person; income inequality (Gini index) narrowed from 38.7 to 33.9; the poverty headcount ratio fell from 51.1% to 41.8%.