China

China: explosive, multi-decade catch-up growth, 1980–2025

Deng Xiaoping's market reforms from 1978 opened the door to four decades of export-led industrialization, moving hundreds of millions out of poverty and turning China into the world's manufacturing hub, before growth cooled from the mid-2010s. Between 1980 and 2025, China's GDP per capita grew from $195 to $13,862 (current US$), a compound annual growth rate of 9.9% — explosive, multi-decade catch-up growth. Annual GDP growth averaged 8.9% with a year-to-year standard deviation of 3.0 points, reflecting relatively stable macroeconomic conditions. Structurally, agriculture's share of the economy moved from 29.6% to 6.7% of GDP (a classic decline as the economy industrialized/modernized), while services rose from 22.4% to 57.7% of GDP, underscoring a shift toward a services-driven economy. On human development, life expectancy rose from 64.2 to 78.0 years, while tertiary school enrollment moved from 1.3% to 76.9%, while the urban population share grew from 19.4% to 66.3%.

What this growth cost: Growth was not without cost: per-capita CO2 emissions rose from 1.59 to 9.32 tonnes CO2e per person; income inequality (Gini index) widened from 28.2 to 36.0; the poverty headcount ratio fell from 97.0% to 0.0%.